Asking the right questions. Seeking the relevant information.

Iterative Path

jackLet us play a card guessing game. I have a standard pack of 52 cards. I pick one at random and ask you for the chances it is a Jack. That is not that difficult. It is 1/13.

But it is not any standard pack of cards. We do not know how many cards in it. In fact we do not even know if there are any Jacks in it. It is like those card dispenser contraptions that spit out a card, except of unknown size. An acceptable answer is, “I don’t know”, because the problem is not frequentist probability question. The problem space has switched from risk to uncertainty.

But we can’t end it there. What if we need to find out to help with a business decision? After all, our output as a leader is decision making- make that informed decision making under uncertainty. So we have to…

View original post 274 more words

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s